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NFL Advanced Statistics - NFL Betting Strategy | Analytics For Better Betting
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21 Statistics That NFL Bettors Need to Track to Be Successful
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The best run stopper on the defense might not be the player with the most tackles. The NFL is a violent league, and every week players get hurt. Defenses that have to spend more time on the field tend to get tired and make more mistakes late in games. On the defensive side of the ball, you need to learn which teams are more likely to give up long plays than others. This information helps you find value, especially when an underdog is getting quite a few points. But, just like looking at more than just the percentages on offense, you need to know how the defense performs overall. The only way to use this when evaluating games is if you track it for every team. Here are 21 NFL statistics sports bettors should track that you can use as a starting point to win more bets. Tracking the offensive punt return average for each team helps you identify the best teams when it comes to improved field position. An offense that can keep coming back and fighting to stay in the game is more valuable than one who seems to give up when they get behind. I started to learn the importance of tracking defensive yards per pass attempt by team instead of players years ago when Deion Sanders was at his peak. Most bettors that think about including punters in their game evaluations just look at the average yards per punt and sometimes the number of punts inside the But you need to track the percentage of punts that land inside the A punter with a higher average of punts inside the 20 is more valuable than one with longer average yards per punt. You should track the turnovers made by each offense and the ones created by each defense, but you also need to know the overall plus-or-minus numbers for each entire team. A great cornerback improves every part of the pass defense, not just on his receiver. Defensive punt return average tells you which teams do the best job on punt coverage and which teams have punters who have the best hang time on their kicks, giving the punt coverage team more time to get down the field. Many of these statistics will be difficult to find, so you need to start researching to find the ones that you can. Find a way to record all of the games each week for further review, or sign up for a service that lets you watch them throughout the week. The same is true for backup quarterbacks and receivers. When games in the NFL get to a point where one team is up by more than a touchdown, it often changes the performance of each team. Tracking the defensive yards per pass attempt allowed gives you a way to compare teams and how each team matches up with their next opponent. This is one of the easiest statistics on this page to track. The best offensive teams still convert more third-down opportunities as a percentage than weak teams, but you also need to look at other offensive statistics and overall ability when you evaluate games. You want an overall gauge of success, and sacks are important. The best offensive lines make every back on the team better and are better prepared to have success if a running back is injured. The longer an offense needs to travel to score, the higher the chance of a mistake. More Articles by the Author Contact Us. Most NFL coaches are afraid that making unconventional plays and failing will get them fired. But turnovers are a team statistic because more than one or two players are responsible. A team with a good offense that often gives their defense a big lead will show more yards and points given up by the defense. The NFL moved the distance for extra-point conversions back, and it results in more missed extra points. But when you track the defensive unit as a whole, you can get a clear picture. Late-game fourth-down attempts should be tracked separately from other times in the game. When the defensive team needs to bring up players in the secondary to help stop the run, it makes it harder to defend against play-action passes. Offenses tend to double-team and run away from the best defensive players. Third-down conversions are one way to track the ability of the offense as a whole. These 21 NFL statistics sports bettors should track gives you a list of advanced metrics you can use to make better decisions. The bookmakers invest a great deal of time and energy into evaluating games and setting their lines. If you want to be a winning sports bettor, you need to have more information than the average bettor, so you can find more value when you evaluate games. Turnovers win and lose games. Time of possession is a good statistic to track because it gives you an overall way to track every part of each team on equal footing. This also helps you factor in the ability of the offensive line on running plays. The teams that are able to give their defense better field position help the defense force more mistakes. Some of the statistics listed below may seem trivial, but the difference between being a winning or losing NFL bettor is thin. Get Picks Today!{/INSERTKEYS}{/PARAGRAPH} This statistic also helps you see which teams do a better job of pressuring the punter and blocking for the return man. The others will need to be compiled from watching games. You need to track the average starting field position for each offense and defense, but the average punt return is an extra way you can influence your betting decisions. But these statistics alone only tell part of the story. The only way you can know is by watching the game. Some teams are better than others overall in turnovers, and by tracking this, you can use it to help swing your evaluations one way or the other in tight games. But these popular stats only show part of the story. Over the course of a season, winning an extra one or two games can turn a losing season into a winning one, or greatly increase your profit. They might give up more yards and a higher percentage of third-down conversions, but when they get to the area of the field where the other team can score, they tighten up and make big stops. Identifying punters that consistently pin their opponents deep in their own territory can make a big difference in your betting results over the course of a season. Make sure you include the yards lost by sacks when you compute this number. One thing that time of possession does help you with is evaluating defenses in upcoming games. He had the ability to completely take a receiver out of the game. A bad defense still gives up more points than a good one, but when you compare two defenses of the same skill level, the one that starts with better field position will usually do better overall and give their team a better chance to win. On the other hand, a team with a strong running game that is playing against a team with a poor run defense gives the offensive team an advantage in controlling the clock and time of possession, and opens up the opportunity for a better passing average. The defense uses a different approach with a big lead than when playing from behind, and offenses do the same. They might not get fired immediately, but too many mistakes add up. You need to track how each team performs when playing from behind and ahead. The reason you track the average defensive starting field position is the same as why you track the offensive starting position. Two-point conversions are often important when you make spread bets. {PARAGRAPH}{INSERTKEYS}Most NFL bettors track the statistics for quarterbacks, running backs, and receivers. This is another of the things on this list that you can only learn by watching games. But if most of these yards and points are during the garbage time at the end of the game, you need to know so you can evaluate the defense correctly. One way to compile more information is to go beyond the normal statistics on a week-in-and-week-out basis. Teams that are able to start with a better field position on average than their opponent have a better chance to win. By tracking everything, including sacks, you take into account the ability of the pass defenders and the defensive line in pressuring the quarterback, as well as how it changes the passing game. On the defensive side of the ball, a turnover can be created by the defensive line pressuring the quarterback into a hurried throw, or by constantly trying to stop ball carriers. But you also need to know how much time of possession is created for defenses when their team has a big lead. Because the difference between winning and losing is so thin, simply having the details on the statistics listed below can make a big difference every week of the season. Teams that have to move up and down the field 5 and 10 yards at a time have more opportunities to make mistakes. You can find the percentages for short, middle, and long-range field goal attempts for every kicker in the league. When a player can shut down a receiver with no help, it lets the safeties help on the other receivers. If you want to be a consistent winner, you need to work at least as hard as they do, if not harder. Just like when you track the statistics for the pass offense, make sure you factor in sacks when you track the pass defense statistics. Statistically speaking, a team that has to travel 80 yards to make a touchdown or 50 yards to get into field goal range scores less than a team that only needs to travel 50 yards and 20 yards. After you accumulate information for two or three weeks, you can start seeing trends and get a better feel for the abilities of each team. Many times during a game, players have to miss a few plays, and their backup needs to perform. Everyone knew he could shut down a receiver, but not many used this information to consider the rest of the pass defense. This statistic is a way to compare the collection of the quarterback, receivers, and offensive line from team to team. You also need to identify who returns punts if the main punt returner is injured. When you know the average yards per carry for the offensive team and defensive team in an upcoming game, it can give you an edge. Strong defensive teams force their opponents into third-down situations more than weak teams, and also allow a lesser percentage of successful third-down conversions. You need to track the completion percentage for both the offense and defense on short, medium, and long-pass plays. The NFL is a game of field position. You need to know which teams and kickers never miss, and the ones that can cost you points over the course of the year. If the starting running back goes out in the first quarter, how much does it hurt each team? A weak team may accumulate inflated passing numbers over the course of the season because they have to pass more when playing from behind. Some defenses give up a lot of yards in the middle of the field, but get better when they get close to their end zone. When you track the statistics and abilities of backup players, it gives you additional information that can help you bet on teams that are better able to deal with injuries.